ACTIVITY LOCATION MODEL FOR THE OSAKA METROPOLITAN AREA.

The Activity Location Model is a linear urban model, which considers an economic base mechanism among various activities. In this model, activities are classified into three large sectors: manufacturing employment, service employment and population. The model is composed of three submodels. First, the change in manufacturing employment is estimated for each zone by the industrial location submodel. This change in manufacturing employment brings about a change in resident population in each zone, which is estimated by the residential location submodel. Second, the change in service employment, which provides various services to the manufacturing employment and population, is estimated by the service location submodel. The change in service employment, in turn, changes the resident population, which will generate further change in service employment. This iterative procedure stops when the changes in service employment and population become small. The control total forecast of each activity in the metropolitan area is allocated to each zone in proportion to the estimated employment and population, and the final activity pattern in the metropolitan area is determined.