Assessment of Outcomes from 1-Year Surveillance after Detection of Early Gastric Cancer among Patients at High Risk in Japan

Importance: Single endoscopic examination often misses early gastric cancer (GC), even when both high-definition white light imaging and narrow-band imaging are used. It is unknown whether new GC can be detected approximately 1 year after intensive index endoscopic examination. Objective: To examine whether new GC can be detected approximately 1 year after intensive index endoscopic examination using both white light and narrow-band imaging. Design, Setting, and Participants: This case-control study was a preplanned secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial involving 4523 patients with a high risk of GC who were enrolled between October 1, 2014, and September 22, 2017. Data were analyzed from December 26, 2019, to April 21, 2021. Participants in the clinical trial received index endoscopy to detect early GC via 2 examinations of the entire stomach using white light and narrow-band imaging. The duration of follow-up was 15 months. The secondary analysis included 107 patients with newly detected GC (case group) and 107 matched patients without newly detected GC (control group) within 15 months after index endoscopy. Interventions: Surveillance endoscopy was scheduled between 9 and 15 months after index endoscopy. If new lesions suspected of being early GC were detected during surveillance endoscopy, biopsies were obtained to confirm the presence of cancer. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was the rate of new GC detected within 15 months after index endoscopy. The main secondary end point was identification of risk factors associated with new GC detected within 15 months after index endoscopy. Results: Among 4523 patients (mean [SD] age, 70.6 [7.5] years; 3527 men [78.0%]; all of Japanese ethnicity) enrolled in the clinical trial, 4472 received index endoscopy; the rate of early GC detected on index endoscopy was 3.0% (133 patients). Surveillance endoscopy was performed in 4146 of 4472 patients (92.7%) who received an index endoscopy; the rate of new GC detected within 15 months after index endoscopy was 2.6% (107 patients). Among 133 patients for whom early GC was detected during index endoscopy, 110 patients (82.7%) received surveillance endoscopy within 15 months after index endoscopy; the rate of newly detected GC was 10.9% (12 patients). For the secondary analysis of risk factors associated with newly detected GC, characteristics were well balanced between the 107 patients included in the case group vs the 107 patients included in the matched control group (mean [SD] age, 71.7 [7.2] years vs 71.8 [7.0] years; 94 men [87.9%] in each group; 82 patients [76.6%] vs 87 patients [81.3%] with a history of gastric neoplasm). Multivariate analysis revealed that the presence of open-type atrophic gastritis (odds ratio, 6.00; 95% CI, 2.25-16.01; P <.001) and early GC detection by index endoscopy (odds ratio, 4.67; 95% CI, 1.08-20.21; P =.04) were independent risk factors associated with new GC detection. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, the rate of new GC detected by surveillance endoscopy approximately 1 year after index endoscopy was similar to that of early GC detected by index endoscopy. These findings suggest that 1-year surveillance is warranted for patients at high risk of GC.