TY - JOUR
T1 - Detection of greenhouse gas and aerosol influences on changes in temperature extremes
AU - Shiogama, Hideo
AU - Christidis, Nikolaos
AU - Caesar, John
AU - Yokohata, Tokuta
AU - Nozawa, Toru
AU - Emori, Seita
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors thank the K-1 project members, S. Crawford, two reviewers and the editor for their comments, and M. Allen for his optimal detection code. This work was supported by Research Revolution 2002 (RR2002) and Grant-in-Aid 18740301 for Scientific Research of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan, and by the Global Environment Research Fund (B-12) of the Ministry of the Environment of Japan. NC and JC were funded by the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs under contract PECD 7/12/37. The Earth Simulator and a NEC SX-6 at NIES were employed to perform the CGCM simulations.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2006, the Meteorological Society of Japan.
PY - 2006
Y1 - 2006
N2 - Detection/attribution analyses of temperature extremes were carried out by comparing a new gridded observational dataset of daily maximum/minimum temperatures (HadGHCND) and the simulation of MIROC3.2. It was shown that significant anthropogenic warming is detectable in the annual warmest night, and the coldest day and night from 1950 to 1999, while human influence was not detected in the warmest day. These findings are in agreement with a previous study that examined the simulation of HadCM3. Human influence is also identified in the decrease in the number of frost days, but not with the increase in the number of summer days. Furthermore, it was suggested that half of the warming trend due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations is canceled out by other factors, predominantly aerosol cooling. It is expected that a rapid decline of aerosol emissions coupled with rising greenhouse gas concentrations would induce larger changes in temperature extremes in the future.
AB - Detection/attribution analyses of temperature extremes were carried out by comparing a new gridded observational dataset of daily maximum/minimum temperatures (HadGHCND) and the simulation of MIROC3.2. It was shown that significant anthropogenic warming is detectable in the annual warmest night, and the coldest day and night from 1950 to 1999, while human influence was not detected in the warmest day. These findings are in agreement with a previous study that examined the simulation of HadCM3. Human influence is also identified in the decrease in the number of frost days, but not with the increase in the number of summer days. Furthermore, it was suggested that half of the warming trend due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations is canceled out by other factors, predominantly aerosol cooling. It is expected that a rapid decline of aerosol emissions coupled with rising greenhouse gas concentrations would induce larger changes in temperature extremes in the future.
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U2 - 10.2151/sola.2006-039
DO - 10.2151/sola.2006-039
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:38849161378
SN - 1349-6476
VL - 2
SP - 152
EP - 155
JO - Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere
JF - Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere
ER -