Influenza patients are invisible in the web: Traditional model still improves the state-of-the-art web based influenza surveillance

Although web-based information extraction systems draw much attention, most of such systems assume that the web directly reflects the real world. For instance, Google flu trend, which is one of the-state-of-the-art influenza surveillance systems, relies on the basic idea that the amount of the influenza related search queries directly correlates with the number of the influenza patients. However, the real patients suffering from influenza symptoms are invisible in the web, because they do not use Internet. Considering this gap, this paper employs an infectious model, assuming that a potential patient utilizes Internet at the first sign of flu. The proposed model improves two types of the state-of-the-art systems, Google based system (from 0.837 correlation to 0.928) and Twitter based system (from 0.898 correlation to 0.918). This study demonstrated that a simple model could easily improve the web-based surveillance.