Risk score to predict 1-year mortality after haemodialysis initiation in patients with stage 5 chronic kidney disease under predialysis nephrology care

Background: Few risk scores are available for predicting mortality in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients undergoing predialysis nephrology care. Here, we developed a risk score using predialysis nephrology practice data to predict 1-year mortality following the initiation of haemodialysis (HD) for CKD patients. Methods: This was a multicenter cohort study involving CKD patients who started HD between April 2006 and March 2011 at 21 institutions with nephrology care services. Patients who had not received predialysis nephrology care at an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of approximately 10 mL/min per 1.73 m² were excluded. Twenty-nine candidate predictors were selected, and the final model for 1-year mortality was developed via multivariate logistic regression and was internally validated by a bootstrapping technique. Results: A total of 688 patients were enrolled, and 62 (9.0%) patients died within one year of HD initiation. The following variables were retained in the final model: eGFR, serum albumin, calcium, Charlson Comorbidity Index excluding diabetes and renal disease (modified CCI), performance status (PS), and usage of erythropoiesis-stimulating agent (ESA). Their β-coefficients were transformed into integer scores: three points were assigned to modified CCI≥3 and PS 3-4; two to calcium>8.5 mg/dL, modified CCI 1-2, and no use of ESA; and one to albumin<3.5 g/dL, eGFR>7 mL/min per 1.73 m², and PS 1-2. Predicted 1-year mortality risk was 2.5% (score 0-4), 5.5% (score 5-6), 15.2% (score 7-8), and 28.9% (score 9-12). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.89). Conclusions: We developed a simple 6-item risk score predicting 1-year mortality after the initiation of HD that might help nephrologists make a shared decision with patients and families regarding the initiation of HD.