Trade policies as signals of private political pressure

The situation of a home government facing political pressure from an exporting industry within its jurisdiction is considered. If a foreign government cannot directly observe such pressure, the home government has an incentive to understate it to induce foreign tariff reductions. In equilibrium, the home government will distort its first-period trade policy in a direction that the industry does not prefer (i.e. raising the export tax or reducing the export subsidy) in order to reveal the true pressure, as compared with a policy selected under complete information.