A systematic approach to projecting industrial solid waste generation by industrial sector in Shanghai

The increasing volumes of industrial solid wastes (ISW) generated have become a serious issue in Shanghai, China. Knowing the volume of ISW that is to be generated in the future is considered a prerequisite for an effective reduction policy and the successful design of treatment facilities. It has been verified that the prediction of ISW generation has an inherent relationship with industrial restructuring caused by economic growth. This study contributes its efforts to develop a systematic approach involving a regional input–output analysis for the forecasting of ISW generation, taking into account the probable industrial restructuring developments. In the process, changes in the consumption patterns, export structure, and technical change are considered to be the important drivers. Further, a sensitivity analysis is carried out as well to investigate the influence of change in consumption on ISW generation. The case study of Shanghai provides for a feasible application of our model on a regional level until the year 2020.